expectations matter.

we live in a complex world.  it's a world where each individual action can affect countless other actions, and the sum of those actions define the world we live in, and its future.  i'm fascinated by this (how could you not be?), and it's a big reason why i love economics.

though the consequences of human action are intricate, the complexity becomes exponentially* greater when you realize physical "action" isn't even necessary in order to have an impact.  your thoughts, beliefs, and expectations can impact your environment.  there is a good deal of evidence that a lack of "trust" is the reason the U.S. recovery from this recession has been so slow.  the rules (laws) of the game (life) have changed so much, and continue to change, that the resulting "Regime Uncertainty" results in inaction.  inaction doesn't spur economic growth.  why would i buy a new car now if i suspect another "cash for clunkers" program in the near future?  why would i hire another employee if the new health insurance laws are impossible to understand? in both these cases, and many others, it makes sense to wait.  and, unfortunately, it's a case where the individual benefit is in opposition to the country's benefit.

*i've observed that Tom winces when people misuse the idea of exponentiality, so i make an effort to do it frequently (along with a long list of other 'triggers'...an infinitely long list).  in this case though, i think it's literally applicable.

 <flash to Tom imagining someone rubbing the words "exponentially greater" on their shoulders and arms (literally 'applying' them, like sunscreen), cause that's totally what he's doing right now>

i love making connections to sports..  imagine a football game where the rules can change at any time.  would it be a game that is full of beautiful plays and complex offensive schemes? or would it be ugly, lack innovation, tend to be conservative, and at times simply be painful to watch?  our economy is no different.  unless you have a reliable and clear incentive structure, you will be hesitant to act, and when you do act you will be very risk-averse.

one of the major factors that determines investment and future inflation is the expected rate of inflation.  basically, what people think the inflation rate will be, for whatever reason.  how crazy is that?

                                           [Free gift for your attention span!]

i want to take this idea in the opposite direction.  think small.  one thing i'm obsessed with is the connection between an individual's mindset and his performance.  again, sports is the obvious connection.  here's the real question: what is the connection between other people's mindsets and an individual's performance?

if the coach draws up a play for you to take the game-winning shot, and the rest of your team doesn't believe you're going to make it, does that affect the chance you have of making the shot?  i have no doubt that it does.  HOW it affects the chance (positively or negatively) can change based on the individual, but it does matter.

in high school, i was the captain of the basketball team.  my performance was noticeably different in practice, where my teammates thought i could do no wrong, than playing pick-up at the rec center, where i was often the only white guy on the court.  it wasn't just a difference in the levels of competition, either.  somewhat often, i would make plays beyond my ability at practice, and, even more often, i would fail to make a routine play on the public courts.

if you'll allow me further illustration, here are some actual thoughts from the actors in each scene:
me: "how in the world did THAT shot go in?!"
others: "of course he made that impossible shot..he always does"

me: "how could i miss that layup!?"
others: "i knew he was going to miss that layup.."

conclusion? expectations matter — WHEN, mind you, the actor either 1) is aware of said expectations or 2) thinks he is aware of them.

the reason why this is on my mind in the first place?  students have incredibly low expectations of their teachers!!! i mean, gee whilickers!! it's mentally exhausting to battle their expectations daily.

a few things i have to deal with:
1) if you are out of college, you are "old"...there are only two options: "old", and "not".  part of this is a complete lack of ability to determine age.  seriously, when kids guess how old i am, the guesses are near 40 just as often as they are near 20.

2) teachers know nothing about pop culture, music, technology, etc.  my students all believe that all teachers listen to classical music and can't work computers.  how do you even respond to such absurd assumptions?  there are so many possible responses that it's paralyzing, almost.  i often have to restrain an immature impulse to list off the concerts i've been to, or doing the "spongebob" dance from party rock anthem, or whatever else*.  my actual response varies.  sometimes i mock them.  sometimes i agree with them (read: mock them).  sometimes i say "you're 12. i have nothing to prove to you."

*Jon's response is to make pop culture references that go over their heads.  i do it from time to time, but he's trying to turn it into an art form.  it's comforting, in a way.  i need to do it more... recent example:  i wrote on the board: "Spelling Bee Club on Monday.  You know what it is."  a few students made the connection to the song "Black and Yellow" and of course they asked if i did it on purpose.  i acted completely ignorant, then added, "all i'm saying is, when a bee goes whizzing by your head, you know what it is"  (Wiz Kalifa is the artist.....).   if there was a scale that ranked "percentage of humor created solely for your own benefit", i would be near the top of the charts.

3) teachers are physically handicapped.  a couple times i hit a volleyball around with the junior high team after practice.  after i returned a serve, one of the girls said "wow, Mr. McClallen, you're really good!"  the fact i made one easy pass impressed her.  instead of being flattered, i was tempted to kill the next ball in her general direction.  how good am i now?  i didn't, obviously.. the point is, her intended compliment was insulting.

at least it's easy to impress junior highers, right?.. but, nevertheless, low expectations bring you down.  i mean, i feel older after interacting with them.  that's not cool.

i probably deserve it though, i was just as guilty of the low expectations for "adults" thing as anyone.  it's hard to avoid. it definitely works the other way, too.  adults don't expect much from kids.  i'll clear up that one up later.